People ask me all the time whether it’s a good time to buy or sell in St. Clair County. My honest answer is that it depends on your situation. But the data I’m looking at this week makes a pretty strong case that sitting on the fence is costing people more than they realize.

I’m Craig Ziegel with the Single Tree Team at eXp Realty. I’ve been licensed in Illinois and Missouri for 13 years, and I’ve lived through enough market cycles in this area to know when something real is happening versus when people are just talking. Right now, something real is happening.

Here’s what I’m seeing on the ground this week in St. Clair County, and what I think it means for you.

Where the Numbers Stand Right Now

The countywide median sale price is sitting at $210,000, which is up 9.9% from this time last year. For context, the Illinois statewide median is $315,000, and the state only grew 6.8% over that same stretch. So St. Clair County is actually appreciating faster than the state average while still coming in well under the statewide price. That’s a rare combination. You don’t usually get both.

The other thing worth noting is inventory. Homes for sale across Illinois dropped 7.7% year over year. We’re seeing the same thing locally. There are more buyers ready to go than there are homes to buy, which is exactly why well-priced homes are moving faster than most people expect. I’ve had sellers surprised by how quickly they got offers, and I’ve had buyers miss out because they took an extra day to think it over.

O’Fallon Is the One to Watch

If I had to point to one community that tells the story of this market right now, it’s O’Fallon. Listing prices are running around $392,000 to $400,000 this month. The median sold price earlier this year was $338,000, which is up 16.4% from last year. That’s not a rounding error. That’s real appreciation, and it’s been building.

A lot of people ask why O’Fallon keeps holding up the way it does. Honestly, it comes down to a few things that don’t change. The schools are strong. The drive to Scott AFB is easy. There’s been steady new construction in good subdivisions, and you’re getting a quality of life here that you simply cannot find at this price point across the river in Missouri. People figure that out pretty quickly when they start shopping.

Scott AFB: The Reason This Market Doesn’t Panic

I’ve watched markets around the country get rattled by interest rate swings and economic uncertainty. St. Clair County doesn’t react the same way, and a big reason for that is Scott Air Force Base. A new economic study came out in April that put a number on something locals already knew: Scott AFB pumps $12.9 billion into the regional economy every year. That includes $8.8 billion in direct spending like payroll, housing allowances, and construction.

There are roughly 6,958 military personnel working on base, another 3,524 civilians, and over 11,000 retirees with full pensions living in the area. These are people who own homes, pay property taxes, use local services, and don’t just pick up and leave when the economy gets choppy. That’s a stabilizing force that most markets don’t have.

On top of that, BAH rates at Scott jumped 5.9% for 2026, which is one of the bigger increases in the country this year. An E-5 with dependents now gets $1,542 a month tax-free for housing. An O-3 with dependents gets $2,208. For anyone selling a home in the $180,000 to $350,000 range, those numbers matter. They represent real buying power sitting right here in your backyard.

Belleville: Don’t Sleep on the County Seat

Belleville gets overlooked sometimes because the price points are lower, but that’s exactly what makes it interesting. Median values are running around $155,000, and there are over 300 active listings. That’s the widest range of options anywhere in the county, and it includes a lot of good housing stock for buyers who’ve been priced out of O’Fallon or Shiloh.

What I keep telling people is don’t confuse affordable with stagnant. Belleville has Memorial Hospital, a growing dining scene on Main Street, easy access to the base, and a forthcoming Boeing production facility that’s going to bring jobs and residents to this part of the county. That’s not a market going sideways. That’s a market with a long runway.

What the Statewide Picture Tells Us

Illinois sales volume was up 3.1% in March compared to the year before. That sounds modest, but in a high-rate environment, buyers still showing up is meaningful. The bigger story is that inventory dropped 7.7% statewide over the same period. Less supply, similar demand. That’s a math problem for buyers and a tailwind for sellers.

Statewide, homes are closing at an average of 99.1% of list price, and 36% of homes are selling above asking. That tells you buyers don’t have a lot of leverage right now. They’re not in a position to lowball and wait. The sellers I work with who price their homes correctly and get the marketing right are still in a very strong position. The ones who push the number too high are sitting.

Who This Market Is Talking To Right Now

If you’re thinking about selling

You’ve got equity, and the conditions are still working in your favor. Nine-point-nine percent appreciation countywide over the past year is real money. But buyers right now are more discerning than they were in 2021 and 2022. They’re not going to overpay for a home that isn’t ready. Price it right, get the photos done well, and give it real marketing reach. That formula is still producing strong results. Testing the market at a number you hope to get, rather than a number the data supports, is where sellers get into trouble.

If you’re buying or buying for the first time

St. Clair County is still one of the best places in the entire St. Louis metro to actually afford a home and build equity at the same time. A $210,000 median is not starter-home-only territory. You can buy real, quality housing here. If you’ve been renting in Belleville or O’Fallon and telling yourself you’ll buy when things settle down, take a hard look at where prices were a year ago versus today. Waiting has a cost, and it’s been going up.

If you’re PCSing to Scott AFB

O’Fallon, Shiloh, and Mascoutah are where most Scott families land, and for good reason. The schools are solid, the commute is manageable, and your BAH goes further here than it will in a lot of duty station markets. The on-base waitlist can stretch 6 to 18 months, so buying off-base often makes more financial sense anyway, especially with the BAH increase this year. Call a local agent early. Don’t wait until you’re 30 days out from your report date.

If you’re looking at investment property

The rental demand here is steady because the drivers are steady. Military personnel rotating through Scott, healthcare workers at Memorial and surrounding facilities, logistics workers tied to the base and the region’s freight corridor. Entry-level investment properties in Belleville and Swansea are still penciling out in ways that are hard to find in more expensive markets. If you’re building a portfolio and haven’t looked seriously at this county, it’s worth the conversation.

Five Things Worth Watching This Summer

• PCS season through July: Military relocation orders peak between now and late summer. Competition in the $200,000 to $375,000 range near Scott AFB is going to stay elevated through at least July.
• New construction in O’Fallon and Shiloh: Builder activity is continuing in the $350,000-plus range. It’ll add some supply, but it won’t be enough to shift the balance in buyers’ favor this season.
• The Boeing facility in Belleville: A new production facility coming to the area is going to create jobs and housing demand. That story is just getting started.
• MidAmerica Airport: The airport moved 384,000 passengers in 2025. As it continues to grow, it strengthens the area’s appeal for relocating buyers and businesses looking at the Metro East.
• Rate movement: Buyers are active even at current rates. If rates dip meaningfully at any point this summer, demand in this market is going to spike fast. Inventory is already thin.